Posts Tagged ‘do-it-yourself’

Ep063: Why Welfare States Fail

Ep 063_Failure of the Welfare State

Editing Note: This episode was re-recorded and in several parts.  Sorry the editing is choppy/bad.  With the wife at work and bath night among the things going on, it was a “real” episode.

I have no interest in attacking people on welfare.  I have no interest in attacking people who are downtrodden, in despair, and feeling helpless about their economic future.  In fact, this article/podcast is an attempt to try to address the despair and break the dependency in America today: Systemic Dependency.

Systemic Dependency (welfare, and its various forms) has done much to destroy our country.  If you don’t believe me, let’s go through a little exercise:

• If I want to destroy an economic power and bring it to its knees, how would I do it?
• Would I declare war and attack it, a militarily superior nation?
• Or would I simply sit back and do nothing letting western civilizations take their natural slide from industrial powers to welfare states, watch them as they ship “dirty” jobs overseas and watch them become “service” economies and watch the socialist tendencies come to the fore as these “enlightened” nations betray the values that made them great?
• Obviously, America has become a socialist country that is great at encouraging people to take benefits they feel entitled to.
• Gone are the days of a nation forging ahead, telling its citizens right is right and wrong is wrong.
• Here are the days of  forgetting who we are.
• Never apologize for what Americans are and what we believe.
• I don’t want courts where supreme court justices who hate their own Constitution…You DID hear what Justice Ginsberg said, right?  No?  She said she wouldn’t use it as a model if she were starting a country and developing a constitution today.  How is this “person” allowed to be a justice after these comments?  Talk about a wacko liberal.
• Back to the welfare state, perhaps Ron Paul puts it best,”…no one can deny that welfare programs have undermined America’s moral fabric and constitutional system…”
• Here is his speech in its entirety, from LewRockwell.com:

• Oppose the Federal Welfare State

     by Rep. Ron Paul, MD

  Ron Paul in the US House of Representatives, February 13, 2003

  Mr. Speaker, no one can deny that welfare programs have undermined America’s moral fabric and constitutional system. Therefore, all those concerned with restoring liberty and protecting civil society from the maw of the omnipotent state should support efforts to eliminate the welfare state, or, at the very least, reduce federal control over the provision of social services. Unfortunately, the misnamed Personal Responsibility, Work, and Family Promotion Act (H.R. 4) actually increases the unconstitutional federal welfare state and thus undermines personal responsibility, the work ethic, and the family.

  H.R. 4 reauthorizes the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) block grant program, the main federal welfare program. Mr. Speaker, increasing federal funds always increases federal control, as the recipients of the funds must tailor their programs to meet federal mandates and regulations. More importantly, since federal funds represent resources taken out of the hands of private individuals, increasing federal funding leaves fewer resources available for the voluntary provision of social services, which, as I will explain in more detail later, is a more effective, moral, and constitutional means of meeting the needs of the poor.

  H.R. 4 further increases federal control over welfare policy by increasing federal mandates on welfare recipients. This bill even goes so far as to dictate to states how they must spend their own funds! Many of the new mandates imposed by this legislation concern work requirements. Of course, Mr. Speaker, there is a sound argument for requiring recipients of welfare benefits to work. Among other benefits, a work requirement can help welfare recipients obtain useful job skills and thus increase the likelihood that they will find productive employment. However, forcing welfare recipients to work does raise valid concerns regarding how much control over one’s life should be ceded to the government in exchange for government benefits.

  In addition, Mr. Speaker, it is highly unlikely that a “one-size-fits-all” approach dictated from Washington will meet the diverse needs of every welfare recipient in every state and locality in the nation. Proponents of this bill claim to support allowing states, localities, and private charities the flexibility to design welfare-to-work programs that fit their particular circumstances. Yet, this proposal constricts the ability of the states to design welfare-to-work programs that meet the unique needs of their citizens. I also question the wisdom of imposing as much as $11 billion in unfunded mandates on the states at a time when many are facing a fiscal crisis.

  As former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura pointed out in reference to this proposal’s effects on Minnesota’s welfare-to-welfare work program, “We know what we are doing in Minnesota works. We have evidence. And our way of doing things has broad support in the state. Why should we be forced by the federal government to put our system at risk?” Why indeed, Mr. Speaker, should any state be forced to abandon its individual welfare programs because a group of self-appointed experts in Congress, the federal bureaucracy, and inside-the-beltway think tanks have decided there is only one correct way to transition people from welfare to work?

  Mr. Speaker, H.R. 4 further expands the reach of the federal government by authorizing approximately $10 million dollars for new “marriage promotion” programs. I certainly recognize how the welfare state has contributed to the decline of the institution of marriage. As an ob-gyn with over 30 years of private practice, I know better than most the importance of stable, two parent families to a healthy society. However, I am skeptical, to say the least, of claims that government education programs can fix the deep-rooted cultural problems responsible for the decline of the American family.

  Furthermore, Mr. Speaker, federal promotion of marriage opens the door for a level of social engineering that should worry all those concerned with preserving a free society. The federal government has no constitutional authority to promote any particular social arrangement; instead, the founders recognized that people are better off when they form their own social arrangements free from federal interference. The history of the failed experiments with welfarism and socialism shows that government can only destroy a culture; when a government tries to build a culture, it only further erodes the people’s liberty.

  H.R. 4 further raises serious privacy concerns by expanding the use of the “New Hires Database” to allow states to use the database to verify unemployment claims. The New Hires Database contains the name and social security number of everyone lawfully employed in the United States. Increasing the states’ ability to identify fraudulent unemployment claims is a worthwhile public policy goal. However, every time Congress authorizes a new use for the New Hires Database it takes a step toward transforming it into a universal national database that can be used by government officials to monitor the lives of American citizens.

  As with all proponents of welfare programs, the supporters of H.R. 4 show a remarkable lack of trust in the American people. They would have us believe that without the federal government, the lives of the poor would be “nasty, brutish and short.” However, as scholar Sheldon Richman of the Future of Freedom Foundation and others have shown, voluntary charities and organizations, such as friendly societies that devoted themselves to helping those in need, flourished in the days before the welfare state turned charity into a government function.

  Today, government welfare programs have supplemented the old-style private programs. One major reason for this is that the policies of high taxes and inflationary Federal Reserve money imposed on the American people in order to finance the welfare state have reduced the income available for charitable giving. Many over-taxed Americans take the attitude toward private charity that “I give at the (tax) office.”

  Releasing the charitable impulses of the American people by freeing them from the excessive tax burden so they can devote more of their resources to charity, is a moral and constitutional means of helping the needy. By contrast, the federal welfare state is neither moral nor constitutional. Nowhere in the Constitution is the federal government given the power to levy excessive taxes on one group of citizens for the benefit of another group of citizens. Many of the founders would have been horrified to see modern politicians define compassion as giving away other people’s money stolen through confiscatory taxation. In the words of the famous essay by former Congressman Davy Crockett, this money is “Not Yours to Give.”

  Voluntary charities also promote self-reliance, but government welfare programs foster dependency. In fact, it is in the self-interest of the bureaucrats and politicians who control the welfare state to encourage dependency. After all, when a private organization moves a person off welfare, the organization has fulfilled its mission and proved its worth to donors. In contrast, when people leave government welfare programs, they have deprived federal bureaucrats of power and of a justification for a larger amount of taxpayer funding.

  In conclusion, H.R. 4 furthers federal control over welfare programs by imposing new mandates on the states, which furthers unconstitutional interference in matters best left to state and local governments, and individuals. Therefore, I urge my colleagues to oppose it. Instead, I hope my colleagues will learn the lessons of the failure of the welfare state and embrace a constitutional and compassionate agenda of returning control over the welfare programs to the American people.

  Dr. Ron Paul is a Republican member of Congress from Texas.

• Dr. Paul puts it eloquently and succinctly.
  
• George Miller’s Failure of the Welfare State is another treatise by a physician and it’s rather long.  In short, it states “What the welfare state seeks is a redistribution of wealth…”  He tells why socialism is destruction and discourages effort from the worker and the need for effort from the recipient.
• Mr. Herman Cain was right.  Instead of demanding systemic assistance, the poor and needy should be demanding jobs.
  
• Now of course there are those in need of systemic assistance who can never work due to illness, infirmity or situation.  This is not about them.
• Let’s put people back to work and shrink the government.
• Let’s put the worker in charge of their own generosity.
• There are plenty of secular and faith-based organizations that can more effectively help the needy.
  
• The government does it badly and expensively and threateningly.
• Lastly, The Rise and Fall of the British Welfare State, by Stephen Berry, discusses the issue from the perspective of Great Britain, and country like us in many ways…but more on that later.  perhaps the main push of his article is this: “What will be the verdict of history on the British Welfare State? Its main crime was the replacement of the burgeoning and varied private provision of welfare with the uniformity and mediocrity of the state monopoly; the values of the entrepreneur substituted with those of the administrator. The aim of state welfare was to remove divisions in society. Ironically, the effect has been to make those divisions more visible. Nothing is clearer in the UK today than the accommodation gap between the homeowner and the tenant in public housing. Nothing is more poignant than the difference between the pensioner who uses an ample private pension to spend the winter months in Spain, and the pensioner dependent on state benefits alone to fund the winter fuel bills.”
• To me, it’s simple: America is a country of sovereign individuals who will rise and fall in proportion to their skills, abilities and efforts.  We celebrate success and encourage effort.  Those supporting “sameness” (whether intentionally or unintentionally) seek to destroy what makes us great.
• We are witnessing this destruction and implosion in Greece, and soon in the United states.
• Perhaps the  presidents who did more to promote socialism and destroy what makes us great are LBJ (President Johnson)  and FDR (Roosevelt) and and the guy in the White House today.

 

 

Ep 056: Flashlights 202

Ep 056_Flashlights 202

Today we’re going to talk a little but about the importance of flashlights.

Notice this episode is entitled Flashlights 202 and not 101…because this is not some basic, generic discussion…I’m giving you specific, relevant information.

But before we do, I need to spend a minute and talk about my experience last night.  So I flew my dad in from Pittsburgh last night.  I heard Obama was flying into town, so I gave myself an extra half hour to get to the airport to anticipate roadblocks, etc.  Can I just SAY how hacked off I am?

First, Las Vegas has an Air Force military airport/base…Nellis…one of our country’s biggest and best.

Why, oh why, couldn’t the president land his plane on the base, instead of shutting down one of our nation’s busiest airports when the Air Force base is just a few miles away and as secure as secure can be?  The reason, of course is stupidity.  Never assign to malice what could otherwise be attributed to stupidity or  incompetence.

So what’s the big deal?  My dad’s plane had to go into a holding pattern while the spender-in-chief landed and all of the before and after time (more than an hour)

My dad’s plane ran out of fuel and had to land in Ontario, CA.  The airport did NOT announce what had happened.  I SPENT AN HOUR frantically looking for an 81 year-old man who the arrival board said had landed.  Finally, I ask at Southwest and they tell me the story.  I’m relieved he’s okay, but furious.

Before this happened I was sitting on the highway at a dead stop with police blockades up for over a half of an hour.  This wouldn’t have happened if he landed at Nellis and flew in to whatever hotel he was going to.

Worse, wasn’t this the same clown who reprimanded companies for having junkets in Las Vegas?  Why’s HE here?  Oh, because he looking for votes…

So, what does this tell me?  Not much.  Politicians and governments do everything the wrong way.  Further, take whatever they say, turn it 180 degrees, and you’ve got the truth.

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

You know, the flashlight is the #1 obvious thing to have in every emergency situation.  It’s so obvious that it’s rarely, if ever, covered in detail.  Sure, everyone knows you need a flashlight, but do you have a flashlight plan? or a flashlight management plan?

There are MANY different kinds of flashlights that fall into many different categories.  I wanted to share a few of the most important ones with you, and help you come up with your own flashlight program.

1. Big ones for tactical situations.  Those giant D-cell lights that take 3-4 Ds and are encased in metal or ballistic plastic…they work well for a club and throw a lot of candle power on the situation.
2. The standard under-the-kitchen-sink model.  This is the standard two C-battery model. It’s usually made of plastic and they go everywhere.
3. The miniature ones fall into many different categories and are used in many different applications

• mini standard-same design as traditional flashlight, but compact and can use a single C, several AAA or even a single AA.
• the head lantern–one of, if not my FAVORITE models.  They sit on your head while attached to an adjustable headband.  The allow for hands-free use and maximum dexterity. They are ideal for construction, camping or when the lights go out.  I keep two next to my bed and my wife keeps one on her nightstand as well.  We each use them for reading when the other is sleeping.  I also use them for my nightly security walk around the house before I turn-in.
• micro-mini flashlights can fit on a keychain and can be no bigger than a coin.  They are ideal when stumbling around a car outside in the dark.
• some flashlights plug into the cigarette lighter in your car.
• another “cool” flashlight is the light ‘app’ for your i-phone or android phone.  The LED screen provides a large surface area to emit a large light.

4. The Program

• Every bedroom should have a standard flashlight.  I also recommend headlamps for all adults to be stored in their nightstands.
• Two or more in every car.
• One in a purse, attached on a ring to a can of mace.
• Place several in your camping box/supplies.  One by every door in the house. One on every level of your home.  Several in the garage and/or shed.  One should be in your briefcase or on your person.
• One belongs in a drawer or storage area at work.
• Store batteries in one area in the house.  Store several flashlights here, as well.
• When all else fails, you know you have flashlights and batteries in the Home Base area.
• Use the or lose them:  All batteries decay over time.  Use them and rotate them out regularly.  It is foolish to keep flashlights in drawers and forget about them until an emergency comes up.  Many batteries corrode and damage the flashlight itself.  It’s better to use them up and rotate them regularly.
• Keep a large stash of batteries on-hand and and use them.  Buy in bulk in discout retailers or wholesale stores.
• Don’t forget the dollar store option for frugal preppers.  $20 will buy a lot of flashlights and batteries.
• Buy flashlight packs.  You can buy a 5-10 pack of flashlights for next to nothing.  Buy them.
• When you think you have enough flashlights…wait a year (or two) and buy another family pack. Flashlights are like socks in the dryer…one always goes missing.  I used to think there was a black hole that ate socks and flashlights…there is.  They’re called the unprepared.  We have all given flashlights, tools, food, clothes and money to the less fortunate of the less-prepared.  I call non-preppers “black holes” because they will take a portion of your supplies and materials with them.  Our goal, of course, is to turn these black holes into brightly-shining suns….suffice it to say you NEVER have enough flashlights.  Never.
• Lastly, treat yourself to a really nice, heavy nightwatchman’s ballistic or metal D-cell flashlight.  It’s butt, when swung at an attacker is as good as a club.
• If you have any ideas or feedback, please add it to the show notes.
• Put an address label on your flashlights.  Borrowed ones tend to make their way home more easily, and if an emergency happens, your identity is on that flashlight, identifies you to authorities and provides an evidence trail in a missing person’s case.

Ep 043: A Rant on Fear-Mongering Creeps Trying to Make a Buck on Your Fear

Ep 043_Rant On Fear-Mongering Creeps

I was checking the news today and came across an ad that really hacked me off.  It was an ad for a book about food items you won’t be able to get in an upcoming crisis.  I clicked on the ad and it was a powerpoint presentation that just kept repeating themes of apocalypse and starvation and neighbors becoming zombies.  IT MADE ME SICK.

Don’t buy into the fear, guys.  Anyone trying to use fear to sell you something is a creep and a scumbag.  It is simply a sales tool to provoke you to buy. 

Instead, head over to www.all-things-emergency-prepared.com.  The site is FULL of FREE, Wonderful Tips, to prepare a pantry for an emergency.

From his site:

Emergency Food Supply

If you’ve given any thought to emergency survival, you know that your water storage, emergency food supply, and disaster survival equipment are the three main foundations of any short or long term survival plan.

Start preparing a survival food system in advance for yourself and loved ones. By doing so, you will be farther ahead than probably 90 percent of the public.

 

Ep 040: What a Riot Over Tennis Shoes Can Teach Us.

Ep 040_ What a Riot Over Tennis Shoes Can Teach Us

So, Nike Came out with a new $190 pair of tennis shoes. They made them limited edition.  They released them two days before Christmas.  Then riots broke out.  No surprise here.

This story is SO WRONG on so many different levels, it makes me sick.  One, SHAME on these morons sleeping over outside malls to grab these shoes.  There was a report of a woman who left her child in the car to wait in line for the shoes  in freezing weather.  Disgusting.  Two, Shame on Nike for causing this riot.  They KNEW what would happen. And they are partly to blame.  But this is part of a bigger problem.  This happens every Thanksgiving all around the country as shoppers fight for “bait” items to lure them into the store.

Now for the big picture:

• This happened over a pair of shoes.  What happens when there is a shortage of food or other essential supplies?
• Most of us just shake our heads at the stupidity of the shoes story.  But when it’s food or medicine, who will be laughing?
• If ever there is a case for being a prepper and keeping a cache of supplies, this is it.
• Tennis shoes are nothing compared to a hungry crowd.
• That is why stockpiling food, medicine, and supplies is so VERY essential.
• That is why gardening and food production is so important
• That is why developing a defensible homestead is so important.
• That is why getting out of overpopulated areas, (in my opinion) is important.

 

Black Eye Friday: Shoppers throw punches over new Air Jordans

Race for New Air Jordan Sneakers Turns Ugly at a Metro Atlanta Mall

Rowdy shoppers eager to get the latest Air Jordans clash with police

New Air Jordans still incite shopper violence 9 years after player’s retirement

 

End-of-the-Year Episode Podcast

Dec 2011This episode will be short and sweet.

It’s the end of 2011 and we’re at the beginning of 2012.  Where are you?

Where are you financially?

Where are you career-wise?

Where are you with regard to your family?

Where are you spiritually?

Where are you preparedness-wise? ( i’m including here house, garden, preps, and plan-wise)

Remember that nobody plans to fail, but many fail to plan.

If you do nothing else over the Christmas break, assess where you are and PLAN for 2012 in every facet of your life.

 

Then, I want you to focus on your family and share a love and enjoy a warmth you haven’t felt in years.  Reach out to estranged family members.  Re-connect with friends and loved ones you haven’t talked to in years…and be a kid again.  Have fun and enjoy life.  You do NOT know whether 2012 or even the end of 2011 will be the last year you spend on earth.

 

With that, I bid you Peace, Happiness, and Prosperity.

Dan

How to add UNIQUENESS to a room without painting it a stupid color.

While analyzing my daughter’s bathroom, I realized I gave her a very soft, feminine, unique bathroom without painting it a color that would be a detractor to potential buyers.

In bathrooms: quirky fixtures (soap holders, toothbrush holders, etc), bathmats, towels and shower curtains give her bathroom a quriky, PINK, feminine touch, and the walls are still white.  If we were to move, the quirkiness comes with us  (the fixtures/towles/etc) and the Normal-ness of a standard bathroom remains (white walls, solid-surface countertops, standard hardware and faucet)

This can be accomplished in any room with with the same techniques.

Think of it this way:  the walls are a blank canvas upon which you decorate and paint your masterpiece.

 

Have a great day!

Dan

Episode 037: Some Ways to Fix Our Country

Episode 037_ Some Ways to Fix This Country

My “US First” initiative. Everybody wants to play,”If I was in charge…” Today, I tell you what I’d do.

They include:

•  No foreign nationals from countries that hate us allowed in:esp in colleges studying engineering, chemistry and nuclear physics
• Profiling foreign nationals from countries that hate us = ok
• Prohibit lobbying
• Make all legislators volubteer/part-time
• Default on all US debt owned by China as a penalty for their continued piracy and copyright infringement
• All wars we fight in get a bill for whomever we help
• No children of illegal immigrants can become us citizens through birth
• Illegal aliens who are sick have their health issues stabilized, and are returned to their country for further treatment–enough abusing our health care system
• No illegals in schools.  all students must provide documentation for enrollment
• Make losers of lawsuits pay the legal fees of the winner–to discourage frivolous lawsuits
• Get rid or lawsuits against doctors (where only the lawyers benefit) and set up a system for victim compensation where only victims benefit.

 

 

 

Episode 036: 5 Home Improvements That Pay Off The Best

Today, I talk about some good renovation projects that pay you back.  Also, I am BLOWN AWAY with the response from my interview with Bob Mayne.  THANKS to all who listened and to all of of my new visitors.  Thanks for visiting and give me a try.

Remodeling Magazine published a list of the top Five Renovations that Pay off the Most are:

Improvement                 Cost                 Value            ROI (Return on Investment in %)

1. Steel Door                        1218             1243                 102

2. Garage Door                     1291             1083                 84

3. Minor Kitchen Remodel     21,695          15790               73

4. New Deck                          10,973           7986                73

5. Vinyl Siding                         11,357          8223                72

 

Episode 036_Five Renovations That Pay Off

I’ll Be Podcasting Over Christmas…

But only here on my blog.  I’ll be working with my hosting accounts and playing around with RSS feeds.  Stay here to keep up 2 date.  Be sure to follow me via whatever media tool you like.  Ithink there’s an app button to satisfy anyone.

Episode 038: Land, Corruption and Remodeling

Episode 038_Land, Corruption, and RemodelingI discuss the boom in farm land prices, next I make the connection to MF Global, and finally,I continue my previous talk on home improvement projects and the expected return on investment (ROI)

Insight: In Iowa, farmland boom means end of an era for many

IOWA FALLS, Iowa (Reuters) – It took just 31 minutes for Donald Ellingson’s family to end an agrarian tradition that had survived more than a half-century, by auctioning off 153 acres of rich Iowa farmland.

Five years after their father’s death, Ellingson’s three children had grown weary of the demands of running a farm. Their tenant farmer had retired, and finding a new one was tough. The youngest of them was 60 — too old, they agreed, to return to a life of risky finances and long work days.

Combines and corn were not part of the lives of Donald’s eight grandchildren or his 14 great-grandchildren. They live far from here. And given land prices these days, the family agreed it was the right time to let the past go.

“I think dad would be fine with us selling the land,” said Diane Guerrttman, 60, who lives in Wyoming and works with at-risk children.

Across the Midwest, the dizzying surge in rural land prices is accelerating a fundamental reshaping of the farm sector in the world’s biggest food exporter. Instead of digging in to benefit from the boom in grain prices, the next generation is opting to cash out of the small, family-owned farms that harbor centuries of rural wisdom and deep tradition.

The bidding wars that are now common at farm auctions and inside attorney offices, resulting in a 25 percent jump in land values last quarter, are bittersweet for heirs and aging farmers alike, whose children have fled to the city, leaving them unable or unwilling to shoulder the rising financial risk of a farm…

(Reporting by PJ Huffstutter; editing by Jonathan Leff and Marguerita Choy)

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Oops! MF Global loses 1.2 billion of customer money: 

Translation: Golly, we’re really rich and we’re really sorry, but you’ll NEVER see a cent of your stolen money.  We’re Wall Street and we’re criminals.

MF Global missing funds may hit $1.2 billion

By James O’Toole@CNNMoneyNovember 21, 2011: 7:18 PM ET

MF Global (MFGLQ) was forced to file for bankruptcy last month after it disclosed $6.3 billion in exposure to troubled sovereign debt from weak European countries, sparking panic among investors.

Government regulators later said that roughly $633 million out of the $5.4 billion in customer funds at the firm were unaccounted for.

On Monday, however, that figure was revised significantly higher.

“[T]he apparent shortfall in what MF Global management should have segregated at U.S. depositories may be as much as $1.2 billion or more,” the office of trustee James Giddens said in a statement…

 

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Remodeling Magazine has a great article on ROI on 50 Projects:

        2011-12        National Averages

Midrange Projects

Project	Job Cost	Resale Value	Cost Recouped	Change vs.                            2010-11
Attic Bedroom	$50,148	$36,346	72.5%
Backup Power Generator	$14,760	$7,009	47.5%
Basement Remodel	$63,378	$42,338	66.8%
Bathroom Addition	$40,096	$20,455	51.0%
Bathroom Remodel	$16,552	$10,293	62.2%
Deck Addition (composite)	$15,579	$9,780	62.8%
Deck Addition (wood)	$10,350	$7,259	70.1%
Entry Door Replacement (fiberglass)	$3,536	$1,990	56.3%
Entry Door Replacement (steel)	$1,238	$903	73.0%
Family Room Addition	$83,118	$50,004	60.2%
Garage Addition	$57,824	$33,089	57.2%
Garage Door Replacement	$1,512	$1,087	71.9%
Home Office Remodel	$27,963	$11,983	42.9%
Major Kitchen Remodel	$57,494	$37,785	65.7%
Master Suite Addition	$106,196	$62,874	59.2%
Minor Kitchen Remodel	$19,588	$14,120	72.1%
Roofing Replacement	$21,204	$12,257	57.8%
Siding Replacement (vinyl)	$11,729	$8,155	69.5%
Sunroom Addition	$74,310	$34,133	45.9%
Two-Story Addition	$165,796	$103,391	62.4%
Window Replacement (vinyl)	$11,319	$7,692	68.0%
Window Replacement (wood)	$12,229	$8,258	67.5%

Upscale Projects

Project	Job Cost	Resale Value	Cost Recouped	Change vs.                            2010-11
Bathroom Addition	$76,209	$40,061	52.6%
Bathroom Remodel	$52,249	$28,972	55.5%
Deck Addition (composite)	$37,829	$20,637	54.6%
Garage Addition	$86,347	$44,987	52.1%
Garage Door Replacement	$2,994	$2,129	71.1%
Grand Entrance (fiberglass)	$7,488	$4,554	60.8%
Major Kitchen Remodel	$110,938	$63,731	57.4%
Master Suite Addition	$227,178	$114,822	50.5%
Roofing Replacement	$37,481	$20,435	54.5%
Siding Replacement (fiber-cement)	$13,461	$10,493	78.0%
Siding Replacement (foam-backed vinyl)	$14,274	$9,937	69.6%
Window Replacement (vinyl)	$14,328	$9,898	69.1%
Window Replacement (wood)	$18,999	$12,175	64.1%

 

 

Episode 034: When Stuff Changes

Whatever your goals are, they will change. Life is what happens in between the plans you make.

You need to re-evaluate your short and long-term plans and be flexible for what tomorrow holds.

Things that affect life for both the good and bad:

• Crop suitability
• job changes/demands
• move
• health issues
• change in direction/motivations/goals
• New dreams, new horizon

Episode 034_ When Stuff Changes

Episode 033: The Vegas Episode: Gambling is Dumb

 

Gambling profits in casinos are more than $30 billion while lotteries are about 17 billion annually

“Players” with household incomes under $10,000 bet nearly three times as much on lotteries as those with incomes over $50,000

 

In 1973 state lotteries had $2 billion in sales.  By 1997, the revenues reached $34 billion

Gambling among young people is on the increase: 42 percent of  14-year-olds, 49 percent of 15-year-olds, 63 percent of 16-year-olds, 76 percent of 18-year-olds.

 

There are now approximately 260 casinos on Indian reservations (in 31 states and with $6.7 billion in revenue)

Internet gambling has nearly doubled every year since 1997 – in 2001 it exceed $2 billion

 

The Internet boasts 110 sport-related gambling sites

According to the American Psychological Association the Internet could be as addictive as alcohol, drugs, and gambling

 

After casinos opened in Atlantic City, the total number of crimes within a thirty-mile radius increased 100 percent

The average debt incurred by a male pathological gambler in the U.S. is between $55,000 and $90,000 (it is $15,000 for female gamblers)

 

The average rate of divorce for problem gamblers is nearly double that of non-gamblers

The suicide rate for pathological gamblers is twenty times higher than for non-gamblers (one in five attempts suicide)

 

Sixty-five percent of pathological gamblers commit crimes to support their gambling habit

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(Courtesy of vegasclick.com)

Expected LossExpected Loss is somewhat of a misnomer.  It’s not the value you actually expect to lose.  It’s the mathematical average loss.  So whoever came up with the term “expected loss” did a bad job.  They should have called it “average loss”.
An example illustrates the difference.  The house edge in roulette is 5.26%.  So for every $5 bet the casino will keep $0.26 on average.  So your “expected loss” on a $5 roulette bet is $0.26.
But if you bet $5 on roulette you can’t lose exactly $0.26.  If you bet on red or black, you’ll either win another $5 or lose the whole thing.  So you don’t really expect to lose $0.26, it’s just your mathematical average loss on each $5 bet, if you played the game forever.
So why do we even talk about expected loss if you can’t lose exactly the amount it predicts on one play?  Because the longer you play, the closer your actual loss will be to the expected loss.  Let’s say you play 1,000 spins on roulette, at $1 a spin, betting on red every time. You win 475 times and lose 525 times.  So you got back $950 (475 wins, plus you get your original wager back), and you risked $1,000.  That means you lost $50. The percentage you lost was $50 / 1000 = 5%, which is pretty close to the 5.26% mathematical average.
Expected loss is good for comparing the risk of various games.  Your expected loss depends on three factors:

1. How much you’re betting (the amount per hand)
2. How fast you’re playing (hands per hour)
3. The house edge (the average casino profit per bet)

In formula form, it’s:

Wager x House Edge x Number of Hands = Expected Loss

As a practical example we’ll use blackjack at $5/hand for two hours, assuming you use the proper strategy:

$5 x 0.5% x 60 hands/hr x 2 hrs. = $3

Below is a table showing your expected loss after 16 hours of play, using common house edges and common rates of play

Game	Hands Per Hour (HPH)	House Edge	Expected Loss for 16 hours of play
Slots, 0.05 Slots, 0.25 Slots, 1.00	800	8.0% (5 coins) 6.0% (3 coins) 5.0% (2 coins)	$256 $576 $1,280
Roulette, $5/spin	40	5.26% (American) 2.7% (European)	$168 (American) $86 (European)
Baccarat, $25/hand MiniBaccarat, $5/h.	60 150	1.06% (betting on Banker)	$254 $127
Blackjack, $5/hand	100	0.50% (with perfect play)	$40
Craps, $10/round ($5 Pass, $5 odds)	30 (Pass Line Bets)	1.41% pass line bet	$34

 

Episode 032: The Thanksgiving Special

Episode 031: Luxury DIY Projects: Thoughts

Episode 030: 3-Ring Binder Organization Revisited

Episode 029: A Veteran’s Day Tribute

Episode 028: Camping Equipment for Emergencies

Episode 027: How to Have a Pick-up Truck without buying

Episode 025: Organizing and De-Cluttering

Episode 026: Personal reflection and a Hospital Rant